Art Market
Arun Kakar
Art Basel Basel, 2023. Courtesy of Art Basel.
Art Basel and UBS’s annual “Art Market” report was released today, revealing an art market currently navigating an “uncertain economic and political future.”
The eighth edition of the report, released by Art Basel and UBS, is authored by cultural economist Dr. Clare McAndrew and includes data from a variety of sources including Artsy, art dealers, auction houses, collectors, art fairs and databases.
Here, we share five key ones.
1. Until 2023, the value of sales decreased, but the volume increased
The headline figure in this year’s report confirms what many in the art industry already knew: 2023 is the year the art market will decline. Total sales in the art market fell 4% year over year to $65 billion. The figures are the lowest since the 2020 COVID-19 infected year, but still higher than the pre-pandemic level when sales were $64.4 billion. Public auctions and dealer sales were also down 7% and 3% year-over-year, respectively.
The report says a combination of “high interest rates, inflation and political instability” led to slower growth at the top end of the market, with transaction volume increasing by 4% compared to 2022. The “relative strength” of transactions in lower price ranges, the share of lots worth more than $1 million, fell 6% compared to 2022. So 2023 was characterized by lower value sales. no less sales
Dealers also offered higher discounts in 2023 compared to the previous year. According to data compiled by Artsy for the report, which looked at average discount levels for works sold by galleries on the platform, average discounts were 18% in 2023, compared to 16% in 2022.
2. And online art sales are resurgent
Against a backdrop of a broader decline in the art market, online art sales are booming. Global online sales grew by 7% year-over-year, reaching around $11.8 billion in 2023. While the figure isn’t quite on par with the online market’s historic peak of $13.3 billion in 2021, sales are more than double 2019—or. any year before that.
In 2023 online sales accounted for 18% of total art market turnover and 23% of dealer sales; The share of online sales increased among sellers in all market segments.
Sellers with a turnover of $10 million or more now account for 22% of the online art market, double the 2022 share that this segment represented at 11%. Sellers in the $500,000-$1 million range grew 12% year-over-year from 12% to 26%. And the largest segment, $250,000-$500,000, accounted for 27% of the online market in 2023.
Positive attitudes towards the online market are also growing. 48% of retailers surveyed expect online sales to grow, up 7% from last year. And only 7% of retailers anticipate a decline in online sales.
Sellers in the $250,000-$500,000 range remain the most optimistic about the future of the online marketplace, with 56% expecting growth in e-commerce sales, which is similar to the response in 2022. They predict that they will sell $10 billion more online by 2024.
3. China overtakes the UK as the world’s second largest art market
Last year was a tough one for the UK art market, which lost its position as the world’s second largest art market to China.
Sales in the Chinese art market increased 9% to approximately $12.2 billion after three consecutive years of decline. The report attributed the boost to “the easing of restrictions related to COVID-19 and a strong increase in activity in the first half of the year”, but noted that sales were “significantly slower” in the second half of the year due to concerns. About the Chinese economy and the “future trajectory” of the market. Sales in the Chinese market in 2023, although higher than in 2022, are still 20% below the 2013 value.
UK art sales, meanwhile, fell 8% year-on-year to $10.9 billion in 2023, down from pre-pandemic levels and 15% down on a decade ago in 2013. Art imports also decreased by 16% year-on-year. $2.8 billion in 2022 $2.3 billion – about 26% below 2019 levels, a persistent problem that British retailers have pointed to since the UK left the European Union in 2016.
The decline means the UK represented 17% of the global art market by value in 2023, falling to third place behind China, which had 19%.
The US remains the largest art market in the world, accounting for 42% of all sales, but the figure is 3% lower than last year. US market sales fell 10% to $27.2 billion in 2023, which the report attributed to a “thinner” high-end market compared to 2022, a year that saw several high-value sales, such as a record $1.6 billion. Paul Allen auction at Christie’s.
Elsewhere, sales in the French market fell by 7% in 2023, but the country maintained its position as the fourth largest art market in the world. In fact, the EU as a whole reduced sales by 2%.
4. Most sales and auction houses expect sales to increase or stabilize in 2024.
The majority of sellers and auction houses expect sales to be stable or improve in 2024, and those who predicted lower sales were the least likely to both their businesses and their members.
36% of sales expect an increase in sales in 2024, despite a decline of 45% at the end of 2022 and 62% at the end of 2021. However, around 48% expect sales to remain stable, an increase of 9%. From the end of 2022. Meanwhile, 16% expect sales to decrease, year-on-year. The most optimistic segment was those with sales of less than $250,000, with 54% expecting an increase in sales and 8% predicting a decline in 2024.
Consistent with previous reports, resellers were more optimistic about their sales compared to their peers: 23% of resellers expected their peers to see an increase in sales in 2024, down 4% year-over-year.
More positivity was evident in the auction sector, where 38% of mid-tier companies expected sales to improve, a slightly higher figure than sellers, but down 10% from the end of 2022. It is noteworthy that only 4% of the segment. sales are expected to decline, compared to 24% from the end of 2022.
In terms of current risks, political and economic volatility was among the sellers’ concerns. Asked to pick their three biggest challenges for 2023/2024, 36% chose this option, followed by maintaining relationships with collectors (32%) and the cost of art fairs (24%).
5. We are seeing progress in the markets for female artists, but not enough
By some measures of the report, women artists are gaining prominence in the art market, but there is still a way to go to achieve parity.
For sellers in the primary and secondary markets, the share of female artists represented in 2023 was 40%, a 1% increase compared to 2022. It was driven by galleries in the first market, where the quota of female artists increased from 42 to 42. to 46%
In terms of sales, female artists make up a 39% share in primary market galleries, and 30% in both primary and secondary market galleries. Galleries with a lower share of female artists are among the lowest performers, the report says: galleries with less than 50% female artists saw a 4% drop in sales compared to a “fairly stable” year-over-year performance. three quarters or more.
The report also found a “slow but positive” trend for female artists online. According to data compiled by Artsy, 36% of artworks published by all galleries on the platform in 2023 were by female artists, compared to a year-over-year low of 28% in 2016. Female artists representing a 24% quota. This figure, although lower than the number of works by female artists on Artsy, is still higher than in 2023, when it was 22%. We recently analyzed this data further in The Women Artists Market Report 2024.
Arun Kakar
Arun Kakar is the Art Market Editor at Artsy.
Correction: An earlier version of this article incorrectly cited average gallery discounts in 2023 and 2022. The average discounts were 18% and 16%, respectively.
